Originally posted on my MySpace blog, February 9, 2007:
Well it's that time of year again. With baseball just around the corner (pitchers and catchers begin reporting to spring training next week), it's time for my annual fearless pedictions of division winners, playoff series winners and individual award winners. So without further ado, I begin tonight with the National League...
NL WEST:
1. Dodgers - This isn't a homer pick, this is a reality pick. The Dodgers won 88 games and scored 820 runs last year (4th best in the NL) while hitting the 4th fewest home runs in all of baseball. They lost J.D. Drew and replaced him with Luis Gonzalez, who had 52 doubles last season. If Jeff Kent and Nomar Garciaparra can stay healthy and get on-base in front of Gonzalez, the offense shouldn't lose a step. The additions of Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf to a rotation that already includes Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley gives the Dodgers more depth, and perhaps one of the best rotations in the NL. Takashi Saito returns as the everyday closer with up-and-coming Jonathan Broxton as the primary set-up man. Put it all together, and the Dodgers should return to the post-season.
2. Padres - San Diego won the division last year with 88 wins by virtue of their head-to-head record against the Dodgers, and they added some veteran leadership to their rotation in Greg Maddux. Their rotation should be good enough to win the division, however, the Padres boast perhaps one of the league's worst offenses, and they did very little to address this in the offseason. They did replace Josh Barfield at second with Marcus Giles, but unless they can outscore their opponents 3-2 every night, the Padres will be hard-pressed to repeat.
3. Diamondbacks - Arizona's line-up is loaded with young studs such as Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Chad Tracy. Couple that with CY Young award winner Brandon Webb, who anchors a rotation that features the return of Randy Johnson, Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis, the D-Backs should be able to hang around and compete with the Dodgers and Padres for the division. The telling tale for Arizona will be the effectiveness of its bullpen, which is anchored by Jose Valverde at the back end as the closer. The D-Backs could be a sleeper pick in the West if the Dodgers or Padres fall.
4. Giants - On paper, this team, offensively, looks old and horrid. They resigned (almost) Barry Bonds, Ray Durham and Pedro Feliz, brought back Rich Aurilia, and added Dave Roberts, Ryan Klesko and Benjie Molina to the mix, which already includes Omar Vizquel and Randy Winn. While these are all solid veterans, it's hard to imagine what this bunch can do as a group. Defensively, this team looks awful, mainly at the corners. The strength of the Giants appears to be, like the aforementioned teams, their rotation. While they may have jumped the gun and grossly overpaid for the services of Barry Zito, its hard not to imagine his potential in anchoring this rotation, which includes young studs Matt Cain and Noah Lowry, and veteran Matt Morris. The demise of this team is bullpen, or lack of one. The Giants will be lucky to stay afloat in this division.
5. Rockies - Colorado boasts perhaps the division's best lineup with Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Garret Atkins, Brad Hawpe, among others. They have a solid core of young starters in Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis, and a very reliable closer in Brian Fuentes. If the Giants should falter towards the end because of age and injuries, look for the Rockies to sneak out of the cellar.
NL CENTRAL:
1. Cubs - Chicago went on a mass spending spree, signing just about anyone who was in need of a contract. They began by bringing back one of their own, Aramis Ramirez, added the biggest bat on the market in Alfonso Soriano, added Ted Lilly to a shaky rotation that needed depth, and complimented all that with Cliff Floyd and Jason Marquis. Put it all together and you have the best lineup in the division, and a solid rotation (when healthy and effective). If all the pieces fall in place as they hope, the Cubs will still be playing baseball come October.
2. Cardinals - The defending World Series champs earn this spot by virtue of respect, but it will take a lot of luck, and getting hot at the right time for the Cards to repeat. They lost two key components of their championship rotation (Jeff Weaver and Jeff Suppan) to free agency, but they do return just about their entire lineup with one minor change at second base: Adam Kennedy replaces Ronnie Belliard. Last year's emergency closer, Adam Wainwright, will join the rotation as Jason Isringhausen is expected back as the closer. In the end, St. Louis is probably a second or third place team at best.
3. Brewers - Milwaukee suffered through a rough season in 2006 as expectations were high. The team was probably good enough to win the division, but it was too inconsistent. Now they're back, ready to prove everyone, themselves included, wrong in 2007. They added Jeff Suppan after trading Doug Davis to Arizona for Claudio Vargas, who join Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano and Homer Bush in the rotation. The line-up remains the same as it did at the end of last season, and Francisco Cordero returns for his first full season as the Brew Crew's closer. If the Cubs pitching crumbles, the Brewers could be sleepers in the Central. They will battle for the wild card.
4. Astros - Houston has had interesting off-season. They traded for starter Jason Jennings after Andy Pettitte bolted and went back to New York, and added Carlos Lee to the line-up. All the while, they are still waiting on Roger Clemens' decision on whether or not he will not only pitch in 2007, but where. Lee brings some added pop to the lineup, but the Astros take a big hit defesively with Lee. Brad Lidge is expected to resume his duties as the closer, but he will be on a short leash again. In the long run, the Astros just don't have enough.
5. (tie) Pirates/Reds - It's tough to decide which of these two teams is worse in this division, but on paper, they are about the same, primarily offensively. The Pirates added Adam LaRoche to their lineup, which already includes superstars Jason Bay and reigning NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez. The Reds are led by power-hitting stud Adam Dunn and veteran Ken Griffey Jr. The rotations are about the same, with mixtures of veterans and youngsters. The Reds probably boast the best of the bunch in Bronson Arroyo but the Pirates have the stud kid, Zack Duke. The Pirates do have a decent bullpen, something Cincinnati doesn't. These two "river city" teams will be battling it out to stay out of the cellar again.
NL EAST:
1. Mets - The Mets come into the season with bigger and better expectations. They cruised to the division title and swarmed into the NLCS in 2006, but they got bounced in teh NLCS by eventual champion St. Louis. They bring back the league's best line-up and deepest bullpen, but they do have some question marks. The rotation is depleted and a mess. They scrambled to re-sign 42 year-old Tom Glavine to a rotation that includes aging veteran Orlando Hernandez, and rookies Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine. Plus Pedro Martinez is not expected back until mid-season. However, it should all still be enough to repeat in the East.
2. Phillies - The Phillies added some much needed depth to their rotation, signing Adam Eaton and trading for Freddy Garcia. These additions all but make Jon Lieber expendable, while Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer round out the rotation. The lineup consists the league's hottest young power hitter in Ryan Howard, and superstar Chase Utley. The bullpen is a question mark, with Tom Gordon closing, and in the end, might be the achilles heel to the team's playoff hopes. However, the Phillies should sneak in as the wild card.
3. Braves - Atlanta's miraculous run of 14 consecutive division titles came to a screeching halt last season. They suffered through injuries and inconsistencies, and a depleted bullpen. The bullpen issues have been addressed with the additions of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez to help closer Bob Wickman. The Braves were willing to part with first baseman Adam LaRoche to get Gonzalez, but they are confident a platoon of veteran Craig Wilson and rookie Scott Thorman can fill the void at first, and rookie Kelly Johnson at second. The rotation is a question mark, but if John Smoltz, Mike Hampton and Tim Hudson can stay healthy and consistent, the Braves should be able to stay afloat for a good part of the season.
4. Marlins - The firing of rookie manager of the year Joe Girardi was somewhat of a surprise, and an even bigger surprise is the possible stadium deal the Marlins have been coveting for so long. But even more surprising was the play of a young group of kids (Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez and Mike Jacobs), guided by Girardi, that many said would lose over 100 games in 2006. Instead, they battled for the wild card until the end. This year should be no different, with or without Girardi. However, Florida might still be a year or two away from being serious contenders.
5. Nationals - Washington is coming off a forgettable season, and they didn't much in the offseason to improve in any area. They lost their one and only marketable commodity to free agency in Alfonso Soriano. The only bright spot is third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who finished very well in the rookie of the year voting, and outfielder Ryan Church, who might be on his way out of DC anyway. That said, there isn't anything to be excited about in the nation's capital.
Coming soon, American League predictions!
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