Originally posted on my MySpace blog, February 10, 2007:
Continuing with my baseball predictions for 2007, it's time to focus on the American League.
AL WEST:
1. Angels - It's hard to not pick the Angels to win this division with its rotation. One of the game's best rotations returns in its entirety. The lineup has a couple of new additions, including the head-scratching deal given to Gary Matthews, Jr. The Angels also added Shea Hillenbrand. The bullpen is loaded again with Francisco Rodriguez, Scott Shields and newcomber Justin Speier. In the end, if the Angels can score a few more runs, they should edge out Oakland for the division.
2. Atheltics - Oakland comes into 2007 minus a mainstay in its rotation over the last six years in Barry Zito. The health of Rich Harden remains a concern but the A's continue to boast insurmountable pitching depth, both in the rotation and in the pen. Frank Thomas left for greener pastures north of the border so Mike Piazza was brought in to fill those shoes. Piazza won't match Thomas' numbers from '06, but he should best his own '06 stats. If Oakland can stay healthy, they'll battle with the Angels yet again for the division title.
3. Rangers - Pitching, pitching, pitching. This has always been Texas' problem. They have a solid 1-2 punch in the rotation in Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla, but the rest of the rotation is a question mark. Eric Gagne was brought in to help solidify the bullpen, but his health is still a huge question. If Gagne falters early, Akinori Otsuka will take over. Scoring runs has never been a problem for Texas, and this season should be no different, thanks to one of the league's best hitter's park. Unless they get better pitching, third place is a lock. (EXTRA! Sammy Sosa has a minor league contract with Texas and could make the team out of spring training.)
4. Mariners - This is by far one of the worst runs teams in baseball when it comes to player personnel. GM Bill Bavasi traded a stud reliever in Rafael Soriano for a questionable fifth starter in Horatio Ramirez, and he traded for injury-prone Jose Vidro to play second base. Bavasi also signed troubled outfielder Jose Guillen. He might have saved face by signing Jeff Weaver to a one-year contract, but add him to a rotation who's number one starter is Jarrod Washburn, and features Ramirez and newcomer Miguel Batista, and this team is doomed before the season even starts.
AL CENTRAL:
1. Tigers - The defending AL champs come into 2007 with high expectations. Picked by many to finish no higher than fourth last season, the Tigers stunned the baseball world by making the playoffs just three years removed from losing 119 games. And they did it with a solid mix of pitching, offense and defense, and veterans and young rising stars. They return their entire rotation (Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson, Mike Maroth and Jeremy Bonderman) and a solid bullpen anchored by Todd Jones as the closer. Their lineup remains intact with the addition of veteran Gary Sheffield. Barring any surprises, key injuries or inconsistencies from key players, the Tigers are primed to avenge its World Series loss.
2. White Sox - Picking from a trio that also includes the Twins and Indians to finish second is like picking which of your triplets is your favorite. There is no winner any way you slice it. But because of its veteran presence, especially in the rotation, the White Sox earn my pick for this spot. Chicago also returns a solid lineup that includes the resurgence of Jim Thome, and MVP candidate Jermaine Dye.
3. Twins - Under normal circumstances, the Twins would be my pick to finish second. But because of the injury to Francisco Liriano that will sideline him the entire season, the Twins slip to third. Johan Santana should continue to put up ungodly numbers, but the rest of the rotation is shaky after him. The Twins do have two of the games best young hitters in Justin Morneau and AL batting champ Joe Mauer. Joe Nathan also returns as one of the game's best closers. If the rotation can get enough innings and quality starts from anyone not named Johan Santana, the Twins could sneak up.
4. Indians - Its not easy putting this team this far down in the division. In fact, it is good enough to keep up with the White Sox and Twins. Their rotation from top to bottom might be better than the Twins, and the lineup is just as formidable as the White Sox. The additions of Josh Barfield, Trot Nixon and David Dellucci should compliment the rest of the offense nicely, and the pen has some much needed depth with the additions of Joe Borowski and Keith Foulke. The Tribe are good enough to finish at least second, and they will battle for the wild card.
5. Royals - Kansas City made one of the strangest and most surprising signings of the offseason when they gave Gil Meche five years and $55 million. The Royals are once again banking on their youth, and Alex Gordon provides a bright spot for 2007 and the future. However, in this division, the Royals will be lucky to not lose another 100 games.
AL EAST:
1. Yankees - The Bronx Bombers are doing something we havent seen them do in years: trade some of their over-priced, over-the-hill veterans in an attempt to restock its once depleted farm system, and they found takers for Randy Johnson, Gary Sheffield and Jaret Wright. But the Yanks didn't take a big hit in trading those veterans and still look like the team to beat in the division. They brought Andy Pettitte back to the Bronx, and re-signed Mike Mussina to a rotation that includes Cy Young runner-up Chien-Ming Wang and injury-prone Carl Pavano. While the rotation still has some questions, all in all, with much of the lineup remaining intact from the playoffs, and with a reliable bullpen, the Yanks should win the division.
2. Red Sox - Boston has had an interesting offseason. They shelled out $51 million just to talk to Daisuke Matsuzaka, then signed him for another $50 million plus. They gave Julio Lugo $36 million, injury-prone but OBP-beast J.D. Drew $70 million, and signed/traded for a plethora of average middle relievers. In the end, they might have the division's best rotation with Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Matt Clement and Josh Beckett, and their lineup looks as scary as ever, but their bullpen is awful, with no real closer as Jonathon Papelbon is likely headed to the rotation. Unless the Sox can find a legit closer, they're stuck fighiting off five other teams for the wild card.
3. Blue Jays - Canada's only team has prepared itself to not only win now, but for years to come. The Jays added a big bat to their lineup in Frank Thomas, and inked superstar stud Vernon Wells to a long term extension. Add Lyle Overbay, Alex Rios and Troy Glaus to the offense, and the Jays will score a lot of runs. The rotation has one of the game's best in Roy Halladay, along with AJ Burnett, Gustavo Chacin, Josh Towers and newcomber John Thomson. The bullpen is anchored by closer BJ Ryan. You can make a legit argument for the Blue Jays in the wild card, and perhaps for the division title if things don't pan out for the Yankees or Red Sox.
4. Orioles - The O's are one of those strange teams you just can't seem to figure out. They have a good offensive core with Miguel Tejada, Melvin Mora and Ramon Hernandez. They added Aubrey Huff and Jay Payton to compliment the offense. The rotation has an interesting mix of veterans (Kris Benson) and youth (Erik Bedard and Daniel Cabrera), but the problem last year was the bullpen. Baltimore did something about the lack of depth in the pen by adding three quality relievers in Danys Baez, Scott Williamson and Chad Bradford. The entire pitching staff should benefit from another year with pitching coach wizard Leo Mazzone, but in this division, it will take a mircale for the O's to finish any higher.
5. Devil Rays - Tampa is definitely headed in the right direction. The Rays have a nice core of young stars in the lineup (Carl Crawford, Delmon Young, Jorge Cantu, BJ Upton and Dioner Navarro) and in the rotation (Scott Kazmir, Jae Seo and Edwin Jackson). Unfortunately, the Devil Rays are stuck in a division with the two-headed monster that is the Yankees and Red Sox, and don't figure to put a dent in either of them.
Coming soon, individual award winner predictions!
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