2007 Predictions, Part Tres

Originally posted on my MySpace blog, Febraury 16, 2007:

This is the third and final installment of my 2007 baseball predictions. In this blog, I make my fearless All-Star picks, individual award winners, as well as some league leaders in pertinent stat categories.

NATIONAL LEAGUE:

All-Stars:

C: Russell Martin, Los Angeles / 1B: Albert Pujols, St. Louis / 2B: Chase Utley, Philadelphia / 3B: David Wright, New York / SS: Jose Reyes, New York / OF: Alfonso Soriano, Chicago; Carlos Beltran, New York; Andruw Jones, Atlanta / SP: Brad Penny, Los Angeles

Awards:

MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis / Cy Young: Jake Peavy, San Diego / Rookie: Chris B. Young, Arizona / Manager: Bob Melvin, Arizona

League Leaders:

Avg: Albert Pujols, St. Louis / HR: Pujols / RBI: Pujols / Runs: Jose Reyes, New York / SB: Juan Pierre, Los Angeles / ERA: Jake Peavy, San Diego / Wins: Peavy / K: Peavy / Saves: Takashi Saito, Los Angeles

AMERICAN LEAGUE:

All-Stars:

C: Joe Mauer, Minnesota / 1B: Travis Hafner, Cleveland / 2B: Robinson Cano, New York / 3B: Alex Rodriguez, New York / SS: Derek Jeter, New York / OF: Manny Ramirez, Boston; Vernon Wells, Toronto; Vlad Guerrero, Los Angeles / SP: Johan Santana, Minnesota

Awards:

MVP: Travis Hafner, Cleveland / Cy Young: Johan Santana, Minnesota / Rookie: Alex Gordon, Kansas City / Manager: Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota

League Leaders:

Avg: Derek Jeter, New York / HR: David Ortiz, Boston / RBI: Ortiz / Runs: Jeter / SB: Chone Figgins, Los Angeles / ERA: Johan Santana, Minnesota / Wins: Santana / K: Santana / Saves: Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles

2007 Predictions, Part Duex

Originally posted on my MySpace blog, February 10, 2007:

Continuing with my baseball predictions for 2007, it's time to focus on the American League.

AL WEST:

1. Angels - It's hard to not pick the Angels to win this division with its rotation. One of the game's best rotations returns in its entirety. The lineup has a couple of new additions, including the head-scratching deal given to Gary Matthews, Jr. The Angels also added Shea Hillenbrand. The bullpen is loaded again with Francisco Rodriguez, Scott Shields and newcomber Justin Speier. In the end, if the Angels can score a few more runs, they should edge out Oakland for the division.

2. Atheltics - Oakland comes into 2007 minus a mainstay in its rotation over the last six years in Barry Zito. The health of Rich Harden remains a concern but the A's continue to boast insurmountable pitching depth, both in the rotation and in the pen. Frank Thomas left for greener pastures north of the border so Mike Piazza was brought in to fill those shoes. Piazza won't match Thomas' numbers from '06, but he should best his own '06 stats. If Oakland can stay healthy, they'll battle with the Angels yet again for the division title.

3. Rangers - Pitching, pitching, pitching. This has always been Texas' problem. They have a solid 1-2 punch in the rotation in Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla, but the rest of the rotation is a question mark. Eric Gagne was brought in to help solidify the bullpen, but his health is still a huge question. If Gagne falters early, Akinori Otsuka will take over. Scoring runs has never been a problem for Texas, and this season should be no different, thanks to one of the league's best hitter's park. Unless they get better pitching, third place is a lock. (EXTRA! Sammy Sosa has a minor league contract with Texas and could make the team out of spring training.)

4. Mariners - This is by far one of the worst runs teams in baseball when it comes to player personnel. GM Bill Bavasi traded a stud reliever in Rafael Soriano for a questionable fifth starter in Horatio Ramirez, and he traded for injury-prone Jose Vidro to play second base. Bavasi also signed troubled outfielder Jose Guillen. He might have saved face by signing Jeff Weaver to a one-year contract, but add him to a rotation who's number one starter is Jarrod Washburn, and features Ramirez and newcomer Miguel Batista, and this team is doomed before the season even starts.

AL CENTRAL:

1. Tigers - The defending AL champs come into 2007 with high expectations. Picked by many to finish no higher than fourth last season, the Tigers stunned the baseball world by making the playoffs just three years removed from losing 119 games. And they did it with a solid mix of pitching, offense and defense, and veterans and young rising stars. They return their entire rotation (Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson, Mike Maroth and Jeremy Bonderman) and a solid bullpen anchored by Todd Jones as the closer. Their lineup remains intact with the addition of veteran Gary Sheffield. Barring any surprises, key injuries or inconsistencies from key players, the Tigers are primed to avenge its World Series loss.

2. White Sox - Picking from a trio that also includes the Twins and Indians to finish second is like picking which of your triplets is your favorite. There is no winner any way you slice it. But because of its veteran presence, especially in the rotation, the White Sox earn my pick for this spot. Chicago also returns a solid lineup that includes the resurgence of Jim Thome, and MVP candidate Jermaine Dye.

3. Twins - Under normal circumstances, the Twins would be my pick to finish second. But because of the injury to Francisco Liriano that will sideline him the entire season, the Twins slip to third. Johan Santana should continue to put up ungodly numbers, but the rest of the rotation is shaky after him. The Twins do have two of the games best young hitters in Justin Morneau and AL batting champ Joe Mauer. Joe Nathan also returns as one of the game's best closers. If the rotation can get enough innings and quality starts from anyone not named Johan Santana, the Twins could sneak up.

4. Indians - Its not easy putting this team this far down in the division. In fact, it is good enough to keep up with the White Sox and Twins. Their rotation from top to bottom might be better than the Twins, and the lineup is just as formidable as the White Sox. The additions of Josh Barfield, Trot Nixon and David Dellucci should compliment the rest of the offense nicely, and the pen has some much needed depth with the additions of Joe Borowski and Keith Foulke. The Tribe are good enough to finish at least second, and they will battle for the wild card.

5. Royals - Kansas City made one of the strangest and most surprising signings of the offseason when they gave Gil Meche five years and $55 million. The Royals are once again banking on their youth, and Alex Gordon provides a bright spot for 2007 and the future. However, in this division, the Royals will be lucky to not lose another 100 games.

AL EAST:

1. Yankees - The Bronx Bombers are doing something we havent seen them do in years: trade some of their over-priced, over-the-hill veterans in an attempt to restock its once depleted farm system, and they found takers for Randy Johnson, Gary Sheffield and Jaret Wright. But the Yanks didn't take a big hit in trading those veterans and still look like the team to beat in the division. They brought Andy Pettitte back to the Bronx, and re-signed Mike Mussina to a rotation that includes Cy Young runner-up Chien-Ming Wang and injury-prone Carl Pavano. While the rotation still has some questions, all in all, with much of the lineup remaining intact from the playoffs, and with a reliable bullpen, the Yanks should win the division.

2. Red Sox - Boston has had an interesting offseason. They shelled out $51 million just to talk to Daisuke Matsuzaka, then signed him for another $50 million plus. They gave Julio Lugo $36 million, injury-prone but OBP-beast J.D. Drew $70 million, and signed/traded for a plethora of average middle relievers. In the end, they might have the division's best rotation with Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Matt Clement and Josh Beckett, and their lineup looks as scary as ever, but their bullpen is awful, with no real closer as Jonathon Papelbon is likely headed to the rotation. Unless the Sox can find a legit closer, they're stuck fighiting off five other teams for the wild card.

3. Blue Jays - Canada's only team has prepared itself to not only win now, but for years to come. The Jays added a big bat to their lineup in Frank Thomas, and inked superstar stud Vernon Wells to a long term extension. Add Lyle Overbay, Alex Rios and Troy Glaus to the offense, and the Jays will score a lot of runs. The rotation has one of the game's best in Roy Halladay, along with AJ Burnett, Gustavo Chacin, Josh Towers and newcomber John Thomson. The bullpen is anchored by closer BJ Ryan. You can make a legit argument for the Blue Jays in the wild card, and perhaps for the division title if things don't pan out for the Yankees or Red Sox.

4. Orioles - The O's are one of those strange teams you just can't seem to figure out. They have a good offensive core with Miguel Tejada, Melvin Mora and Ramon Hernandez. They added Aubrey Huff and Jay Payton to compliment the offense. The rotation has an interesting mix of veterans (Kris Benson) and youth (Erik Bedard and Daniel Cabrera), but the problem last year was the bullpen. Baltimore did something about the lack of depth in the pen by adding three quality relievers in Danys Baez, Scott Williamson and Chad Bradford. The entire pitching staff should benefit from another year with pitching coach wizard Leo Mazzone, but in this division, it will take a mircale for the O's to finish any higher.

5. Devil Rays - Tampa is definitely headed in the right direction. The Rays have a nice core of young stars in the lineup (Carl Crawford, Delmon Young, Jorge Cantu, BJ Upton and Dioner Navarro) and in the rotation (Scott Kazmir, Jae Seo and Edwin Jackson). Unfortunately, the Devil Rays are stuck in a division with the two-headed monster that is the Yankees and Red Sox, and don't figure to put a dent in either of them.

Coming soon, individual award winner predictions!

2007 Predictions, Part One

Originally posted on my MySpace blog, February 9, 2007:

Well it's that time of year again. With baseball just around the corner (pitchers and catchers begin reporting to spring training next week), it's time for my annual fearless pedictions of division winners, playoff series winners and individual award winners. So without further ado, I begin tonight with the National League...

NL WEST:

1. Dodgers - This isn't a homer pick, this is a reality pick. The Dodgers won 88 games and scored 820 runs last year (4th best in the NL) while hitting the 4th fewest home runs in all of baseball. They lost J.D. Drew and replaced him with Luis Gonzalez, who had 52 doubles last season. If Jeff Kent and Nomar Garciaparra can stay healthy and get on-base in front of Gonzalez, the offense shouldn't lose a step. The additions of Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf to a rotation that already includes Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley gives the Dodgers more depth, and perhaps one of the best rotations in the NL. Takashi Saito returns as the everyday closer with up-and-coming Jonathan Broxton as the primary set-up man. Put it all together, and the Dodgers should return to the post-season.

2. Padres - San Diego won the division last year with 88 wins by virtue of their head-to-head record against the Dodgers, and they added some veteran leadership to their rotation in Greg Maddux. Their rotation should be good enough to win the division, however, the Padres boast perhaps one of the league's worst offenses, and they did very little to address this in the offseason. They did replace Josh Barfield at second with Marcus Giles, but unless they can outscore their opponents 3-2 every night, the Padres will be hard-pressed to repeat.

3. Diamondbacks - Arizona's line-up is loaded with young studs such as Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Chad Tracy. Couple that with CY Young award winner Brandon Webb, who anchors a rotation that features the return of Randy Johnson, Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis, the D-Backs should be able to hang around and compete with the Dodgers and Padres for the division. The telling tale for Arizona will be the effectiveness of its bullpen, which is anchored by Jose Valverde at the back end as the closer. The D-Backs could be a sleeper pick in the West if the Dodgers or Padres fall.

4. Giants - On paper, this team, offensively, looks old and horrid. They resigned (almost) Barry Bonds, Ray Durham and Pedro Feliz, brought back Rich Aurilia, and added Dave Roberts, Ryan Klesko and Benjie Molina to the mix, which already includes Omar Vizquel and Randy Winn. While these are all solid veterans, it's hard to imagine what this bunch can do as a group. Defensively, this team looks awful, mainly at the corners. The strength of the Giants appears to be, like the aforementioned teams, their rotation. While they may have jumped the gun and grossly overpaid for the services of Barry Zito, its hard not to imagine his potential in anchoring this rotation, which includes young studs Matt Cain and Noah Lowry, and veteran Matt Morris. The demise of this team is bullpen, or lack of one. The Giants will be lucky to stay afloat in this division.

5. Rockies - Colorado boasts perhaps the division's best lineup with Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Garret Atkins, Brad Hawpe, among others. They have a solid core of young starters in Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis, and a very reliable closer in Brian Fuentes. If the Giants should falter towards the end because of age and injuries, look for the Rockies to sneak out of the cellar.

NL CENTRAL:

1. Cubs - Chicago went on a mass spending spree, signing just about anyone who was in need of a contract. They began by bringing back one of their own, Aramis Ramirez, added the biggest bat on the market in Alfonso Soriano, added Ted Lilly to a shaky rotation that needed depth, and complimented all that with Cliff Floyd and Jason Marquis. Put it all together and you have the best lineup in the division, and a solid rotation (when healthy and effective). If all the pieces fall in place as they hope, the Cubs will still be playing baseball come October.

2. Cardinals - The defending World Series champs earn this spot by virtue of respect, but it will take a lot of luck, and getting hot at the right time for the Cards to repeat. They lost two key components of their championship rotation (Jeff Weaver and Jeff Suppan) to free agency, but they do return just about their entire lineup with one minor change at second base: Adam Kennedy replaces Ronnie Belliard. Last year's emergency closer, Adam Wainwright, will join the rotation as Jason Isringhausen is expected back as the closer. In the end, St. Louis is probably a second or third place team at best.

3. Brewers - Milwaukee suffered through a rough season in 2006 as expectations were high. The team was probably good enough to win the division, but it was too inconsistent. Now they're back, ready to prove everyone, themselves included, wrong in 2007. They added Jeff Suppan after trading Doug Davis to Arizona for Claudio Vargas, who join Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano and Homer Bush in the rotation. The line-up remains the same as it did at the end of last season, and Francisco Cordero returns for his first full season as the Brew Crew's closer. If the Cubs pitching crumbles, the Brewers could be sleepers in the Central. They will battle for the wild card.

4. Astros - Houston has had interesting off-season. They traded for starter Jason Jennings after Andy Pettitte bolted and went back to New York, and added Carlos Lee to the line-up. All the while, they are still waiting on Roger Clemens' decision on whether or not he will not only pitch in 2007, but where. Lee brings some added pop to the lineup, but the Astros take a big hit defesively with Lee. Brad Lidge is expected to resume his duties as the closer, but he will be on a short leash again. In the long run, the Astros just don't have enough.

5. (tie) Pirates/Reds - It's tough to decide which of these two teams is worse in this division, but on paper, they are about the same, primarily offensively. The Pirates added Adam LaRoche to their lineup, which already includes superstars Jason Bay and reigning NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez. The Reds are led by power-hitting stud Adam Dunn and veteran Ken Griffey Jr. The rotations are about the same, with mixtures of veterans and youngsters. The Reds probably boast the best of the bunch in Bronson Arroyo but the Pirates have the stud kid, Zack Duke. The Pirates do have a decent bullpen, something Cincinnati doesn't. These two "river city" teams will be battling it out to stay out of the cellar again.

NL EAST:

1. Mets - The Mets come into the season with bigger and better expectations. They cruised to the division title and swarmed into the NLCS in 2006, but they got bounced in teh NLCS by eventual champion St. Louis. They bring back the league's best line-up and deepest bullpen, but they do have some question marks. The rotation is depleted and a mess. They scrambled to re-sign 42 year-old Tom Glavine to a rotation that includes aging veteran Orlando Hernandez, and rookies Philip Humber, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine. Plus Pedro Martinez is not expected back until mid-season. However, it should all still be enough to repeat in the East.

2. Phillies - The Phillies added some much needed depth to their rotation, signing Adam Eaton and trading for Freddy Garcia. These additions all but make Jon Lieber expendable, while Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer round out the rotation. The lineup consists the league's hottest young power hitter in Ryan Howard, and superstar Chase Utley. The bullpen is a question mark, with Tom Gordon closing, and in the end, might be the achilles heel to the team's playoff hopes. However, the Phillies should sneak in as the wild card.

3. Braves - Atlanta's miraculous run of 14 consecutive division titles came to a screeching halt last season. They suffered through injuries and inconsistencies, and a depleted bullpen. The bullpen issues have been addressed with the additions of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez to help closer Bob Wickman. The Braves were willing to part with first baseman Adam LaRoche to get Gonzalez, but they are confident a platoon of veteran Craig Wilson and rookie Scott Thorman can fill the void at first, and rookie Kelly Johnson at second. The rotation is a question mark, but if John Smoltz, Mike Hampton and Tim Hudson can stay healthy and consistent, the Braves should be able to stay afloat for a good part of the season.

4. Marlins - The firing of rookie manager of the year Joe Girardi was somewhat of a surprise, and an even bigger surprise is the possible stadium deal the Marlins have been coveting for so long. But even more surprising was the play of a young group of kids (Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez and Mike Jacobs), guided by Girardi, that many said would lose over 100 games in 2006. Instead, they battled for the wild card until the end. This year should be no different, with or without Girardi. However, Florida might still be a year or two away from being serious contenders.

5. Nationals - Washington is coming off a forgettable season, and they didn't much in the offseason to improve in any area. They lost their one and only marketable commodity to free agency in Alfonso Soriano. The only bright spot is third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who finished very well in the rookie of the year voting, and outfielder Ryan Church, who might be on his way out of DC anyway. That said, there isn't anything to be excited about in the nation's capital.

Coming soon, American League predictions!