So I was sitting here doing some work, while brainstorming on the side, possible playoff scenarios, match-ups and roster decisions for the Dodgers. I was trying to decipher all the possible tie-breakers and started getting a bit of a headache because there were so many possibilities. It didn't occur to me that MLB.com might have already touch on this, with what just three games left in the season for everyone involved. So I went to MLB.com and lo and behold, one of their knowledgeable columnists broke it all down for us.
After reading through it all, I was getting an even bigger headache, primarily from trying to get a grasp on the three-way tie-breakers when I finally gave up and came to one conclusion: If the Dodgers win two games this weekend, and it's certainly possible based on the pitching match-ups tonight and tomorrow, then all of those tie-breaker scenarios will all be for naught because the Dodgers will have clinched home-field advantage with two wins.
Having said all that, the Dodgers still have some homework to do and decisions to make as far as the post-season roster is concerned. And a lot of those decisions will be based on who their first round opponent is.
This much we know: roughly two-thirds of the roster is all but a given. And based on last year's post-season, we can almost assume they will go with 11 pitchers instead of the 13 they've been carrying much of the season. So with that said, these are the guys we know will be on the roster, assuming everyone is healthy and ready to go:
Line-up (8): Rafael Furcal, Orlando Hudson, Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Casey Blake, James Loney, Russell Martin.
Bench (5): Brad Ausmus, Juan Pierre, Ronnie Belliard, Jim Thome, Juan Castro
Rotation (4): Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kiroda, Chad Billingsley
Bullpen (4): Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chi Kuo, Ronald Bellisario
That gives them 21 "for-sures" on the post-season roster if everyone is healthy, and based on the assumption Torre will go with 11 pitchers, that leaves three pitching spots open.
The general consensus is Wolf, Kershaw and Kuroda will be the Dodgers first three starters, provided Kuroda's stiff neck loosens up. There's still some question as to whether Chad Billingsley or Jon Garland will be the fourth starter, but based on recent performances by both pitchers, it all but appears that it will be Billingsley, which would kick Garland out to the pen, perhaps as the long man, or even completely off the roster. My guess is the latter.
As for the bullpen, Jeff Weaver has the most post-season experience in the bullpen, so he'll likely get the nod as a long-man. Roman Troncoso was hit pretty hard against St. Louis, likely the Dodgers first round opponent, in his brief stint against them this season, but he was a key part of the bullpen's success this year, so there's a good chance he'll be on the roster anyway. That leaves one more spot.
Should the Dodgers include Weaver and Troncoso, that leaves Garland, Guillermo Mota, James McDonald and Vicente Padilla for that elusive final spot. If Garland is left off, McDonald or Padilla will get the last nod, especially against St. Louis. However, if the Dodgers somehow end up playing Philly under any scenario in the first round, they'll probably take Scott Elbert over a McDonald or any of the other right-handers because he's a left-hander who would help counter the Phillies lefty-dominated line-up.
As for the line-up and bench, we know Pierre is a given as a back-up outfielder and a late-inning pinch-runner, and Ausmus will back-up Martin. The acquisition of Thome to provide power off the bench down the stretch and in the post-season (and to be the DH if they get as far as the World Series) means Doug Meintkiewicz will be left off. Juan Castro will probably be added as a back-up infielder for defensive purposes.
As for the final spot, a lot rests of the health of both Blake and Belliard, who are both nursing nagging hamstrings. If both are healthy, Blake is in the lineup and Belliard gets the last roster spot. If one of them can't make it, Mark Loretta would probably get the last spot, and if both can't go, it will probably be Loretta and Blake DeWitt.
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