I wanted to wait until the World Series was over before looking ahead to next season, but it seems like I'm falling behind in that department while other bloggers have already touched on it. Of course, being last in line to make some noise in that department, my sentiments might seem like I'm basically using other opinions as my own. But I assure you, my opinions below are solely my own.
Heading into the 2009 season, it appeared that starting pitching could be their achilles heal. As it turned it out, the rotation as a whole was better than advertised, finishing tops in baseball with a 3.41 ERA. Clayton Kershaw emerged as the "ace" of the staff with his 2.79 ERA, and veteran Randy Wolf was better than expected with a 3.23 ERA. But Chad Billingsley, who went into the season as the "ace," took a step backwards, and injuries limited Hiroki Kuroda to just 20 starts in 2009.
All that said, it wasn't enough to get the Dodgers past the Phillies in the NLCS despite their NL-high 95 wins. The same inconsistencies the Dodgers got from most of their starters turned out to be their demise against the Phillies: issuing far too many walks. (And this was actually a problem for the relievers, as well.)
As the team heads into next season, while it may seem like there are a lot of question marks surrounding the rotation, there really aren't that many questions.
Kershaw is on the cusp of being a top five pitcher in the NL. While he had a very good overall ERA, his splits showed his inconsistencies at home and on the road. Kershaw led the NL in ERA at home with a microscopic ERA of 1.83, but he had a 3.83 ERA on the road, and finished with just eight wins overall. If he can pitch better on the road, and cut back on his walks, the Dodgers have their "ace."
The rest of the rotation will remain unchanged, for the most part. After Billingsley and Kuroda, the Dodgers will likely turn to Jon Garland, acquired at the end of August for depth, assuming both parties agree on the mutual option in Garland's contract for next season. If that happens, and it's very likely it will, the rotation still doesn't look too shabby, and they'll have just one hole in the rotation to fill.
Randy Wolf will be a Type-A free agent, which means any team that signs him, will have to cough up a top draft pick as compensation to the Dodgers. They'll likely offer him arbitration because it would appear he won't accept anyway, meaning they could get another draft pick in return for him. And with the type of season he had in 2009 for the Blue, you can bet he'll want more than a one-year, $8MM deal he signed last off-season, something the Dodgers are unlikely to do again. And Vicente Padilla, as well as he pitched since he was signed in mid-August, seems to be a bit too risky and likely won't be back.
That said, Ned Colletti will have to scour the thin free agent and trade markets for a middle-to-back-end-of-the-rotation guy to fill the last rotation spot. There have been suggestions that the Dodgers could offer up a package to get SP Josh Johnson and 2B Dan Uggla from Florida, but the Dodgers farm has thinned out a bit over the last couple of seasons because of trades, and they're unlikely to move anyone off the major league roster in any deal. But if they can pull off such a deal, they kill two birds with one stone. Otherwise, they'll have to look at free agency for both positions.
Second base would appear to be an easier hole to fill. Orlando Hudson and Ronnie Belliard are both free agents, and Hudson, like Wolf is a Type-A. Hudson basically falls into the same boat as Wolf, so even if they offer him arbitration, chances are he won't accept. After being replaced as the everyday second baseman in August by Belliard, it would appear Hudson wants no part of the Dodgers again. And Belliard's age makes him an unlikely candidate to return as an everyday replacement.
Assuming the above scenario plays out, the Dodgers could then turn their attention to Mark DeRosa. DeRosa is a lot like Hudson in that he's a "gamer," and his versatility in the lineup and around the infield could make him very attractive to the Dodgers. Like Hudson last off-season, DeRosa could be just the type of player that gets the team over the hump. And he could be available at a very reasonable price, as well.
On the other hand, filling out the rotation could be tricky. John Lackey would appear to be the most logical fit for the Blue off the free agent list, but his asking price could steer them away from him. And a Roy Halladay trade could be costly as far as the minor leagues, and even the current roster goes, so that seems unlikely, as well.
The rest of the starting pitching market is fairly thin, but there are some intriguing players on the list, mostly guys coming off injuries. After Colletti was burned by the Jason Schmidt contract, it would appear he would be very cautious about signing injury-prone pitchers to deals longer than one or two years. But, iff they're available at the right price, and they're willing to take a one plus incentives or a one plus one deal, Rich Harden or Ben Sheets could be nice low-risk, high-reward options.
The rest of the lineup, assuming Manny does exercise his player option which he's likely to do, will remain unchanged, unless they opt to use Russell Martin and/or James Loney as trade bait to improve the offense, which struggled immensely in the second half and during the post-season to hit with runners on base and in scoring position.
Even with his three-year decline, the Dodgers aren't going to find much else to replace Martin. But because Martin has shown flashes of power and the ability to hit for average in the past, his .250/.352/.323/7/53 line seems horrid, when in reality, it's really not that horrid for a catcher. Still, he can be better.
Loney is a whole other story. If you look around the league and compare his numbers to other first basemen, Loney isn't even on the radar, especially in the power department. While he might be a solid .280-.290 hitter with a great glove, his .750-ish OPS is just downright brutal for a regular, everyday first baseman in the NL. In fact, his OPS was among the worst in the NL for all regular, everyday first basemen. First base is supposed to be a power position. If you aren't getting 25-30 home runs minimum from your first baseman, it's time to find a way to improve there. Loney's shown flashes of power, especially on the road this season, so the Dodgers will probably give him another year to see if it really develops.
The bullpen appears to be intact for next season as well, with Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Bellisario. The only real question is what they do with free agents Guierrmo Mota and Jeff Weaver, if anything. Weaver could be brought back as the long-man/spot-starter.
Only the bench would appear to need some rework again, as the entire bench core of Mark Loretta, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jim Thome, Juan Castro and Brad Ausmus (minus Juan Pierre, of course) are all free agents. Thome is all but headed back to the AL to be an everyday DH again. I would think one or two of the other guys, Belliard included, could be back on cheap one-year deals.
But because the Dodgers have eight key players (Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, George Sherrill, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Hong-Chih Kuo and Russell Martin) eligible for arbitration, with six or seven of them due hefty pay-raises, it wouldn't be a surprise if the Dodgers were not very active in the free agent market this winter as far as the top free agents go.
Colletti and Joe Torre have both indicated that the rotation and second base will be their off-season priorities, and knowing Colletti, he'll look to fill those needs while "flying under the radar."
