Top 30 Free Agent Review

Earlier in the offseason about two months ago, I went out on a limb and predicted where I thought 30 of the top free agents this winter would land. Most on that list have signed, some haven't. Those who did, I wasn't always accurate in my predictions. I thought now, with just 15 days left before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, would be as good a time as any to review my picks.

1. CC Sabathia. I picked the Yankees, and that's exactly where he ended up. Did anyone really think anyone would outbid the Yankees for his services?

2. Mark Teixeira. Surprise! Yankees again. I was sure he would stay out in Anaheim with the Angels, but in the end, he never really wanted to be anywhere else.

3. Manny Ramirez. Still unsigned, with only one offer ever made. The Dodgers still seem like the most obvious choice here, and why not? They made that one offer, and there's been virtually no market for him.

4. AJ Burnett. Again, I picked the Yankees, and that's where he signed. Another no-brainer.

5. Francisco Rodriguez. I was sure the Rays would make a run at him since they desperately need depth in the pen, but instead, the Mets got him at much less than what he originally wanted.

6. Derek Lowe. There was virtually no real market for him until recently. I was sure he would go 'home' to Detroit and try to help the Tigers and give them rotation depth and stability, but instead, he chose Atlanta.

7. Adam Dunn. Another outfielder still unsigned, and it appears they're all waiting on Manny. I still think Dunn would be a nice fit in Seattle, but he'll probably have to take a bargained, one-year deal wherever he goes.

8. Bobby Abreu. I thought there was mutual interest with him and the Yankees, but now the Yankees have a surplus of outfielders. Abreu's basically in the same boat as Dunn. Where he ends up is anyone's guess now.

9. Rafael Furcal. Almost became an Athletic; almost became a Brave, again. Instead, after a lot of controversey, Furcal got the three-year deal he wanted from the team he wanted to play for: the Dodgers, which is where I had him going, or staying, all along.

10. Ryan Dempster. He came off the books very early as one of the first top free agents to sign. The mutal interest betwen Dempster and the Cubs made this an easy one to pick.

11. Ben Sheets. Best pitcher still on the market. And I still think he ends up in with the Rangers when all is said and done.

12. Jason Giambi. Something told me he was heading back to Oakland on a cheap one-year deal, and that's exactly what happened.

13. Mike Mussina. I wasn't sure whether Mussina or Andy Pettitte would retire, or both, or neither, but I knew that if one did and the other didn't, the one who didn't would wind up back in New York. Mussina retired.

14. Orlando Hudson. I thought he would have been a nice fit in L.A. with Blake DeWitt going back to thrid base from second, but the Dodgers chose to re-sign Casey Blake instead. Hudson remains unsigned with no ideas as to where he might end up.

15. Brian Fuentes. It was no secret the Mets needed a closer with Billy Wagner out for the season. I figured Fuentes would have been a better fit for the Mets than K-Rod, but instead, the Angels replaced K-Rod with Fuentes.

16. Pat Burrell. In a surprise move, the Phils and Burrell parted ways and Burrell signed with the A.L. Champion Tampa Bay Rays.

17. Orlando Cabrera. The Blue Jays desperately need an upgrade at short stop, and I still think O-Cab would be a perfect fit in Toronto, but as of today, he remains unsigned, as well. It's anyone's guess at this point where he signs.

18. Kerry Wood. In another surprise move, the Cubs opted to cut ties with Wood and give Carlos Marmol the closer's job, so Wood has taken his services to Cleveland.

19. Milton Bradley. I thought the Blue Jays could use his gutsy play and emotional fire in the middle of their lineup, but instead, Bradley signed a three-year deal with the Cubs. Nice signing by the Cubbies.

20. Andy Pettitte. Mussina retired, so Pettitte wound up back in the Bronx, at a much lesser amount than he originally wanted.

21. Jamie Moyer. Was there any chance he would sign anywhere else but Philly? Nope. Welcome back, Jamie.

22. Oliver Perez. He might not be the front-of-the-rotation guy a lot of teams need, but I thought he'd be a nice fit in the middle of the Dodgers' rotation. He's still unsigned as of today, but all signs point to him staying put in New York with the Dodgers leaning towards Randy Wolf.

23. Raul Ibanez. Ibanez would have been a solid fit for a number of teams in the outfield, and I felt the Mets needed a veteran in one of their corners, but instead, the Phillies signed him to replace Burrell.

24. Casey Blake. I initially thought Blake wanted to go back to Cleveland (or wasn't so sure about going back to L.A.). It basically came down to three teams and when the Indians and Twins dropped out, Blake re-signed in L.A.

25. Joe Crede. The other third baseman on the marke is still unsigned. I thought the Rangers could use him there, but they've asked Michael Young to move over to third to make room for a prospect coming up. All signs point to Crede landing in either Minnesota or San Francisco at this point.

26. Juan Rivera. The Cubs had to get a corner outfielder to play in right field. I figured they'd take a look at Rivera, but he instead re-signed with the Angels and the Cubs eventually signed Bradley.

27. Felipe Lopez. Lopez signed early in the game with teh D-backs to take over second base duties in Arizona. I had him going to Houston for whatever reason.

28. Trevor Hoffman. So much for the "no-brainer" pick back to the Padres. Instead, the Padres cut ties with him and he almost wound up in L.A. before taking Milwaukee's deal instead.

29. Randy Johnson. I had him going to the Angels as I felt he was a clear upgrade over Jon Garland. It appeared he might have been headed to L.A. anyway, but to the Dodgers, before the Giants came in and nabbed him.

30. Garrett Anderson. G.A. is still unsigned and I still feel the Giants could use a left-handed power bat in the middle of their lineup, but there has been no indications that the Giants have any interest, or where Anderson might even end up.

Monday Night Blogball

The Dodgers have been in the news quite a bit in the last week, and while some news is good news, it's not all quite the news we've been hoping for. That said, Manny is still not a Dodger... yet. More on that in a minute...

The big free agent signing of the week is none other than Brad Ausmus, a Southern California native who spurned the Padres to be Russell Martin's back-up, which means he'll probably start all of 30 games this year, given the fact Martin has been the busiest catcher in all of baseball in terms of games started the last two years. The Dodgers now employ two back-up catchers, and you can bet Danny Ardoin is ecstatic about this move.

The normally stoic, all-business, no-nonsense, hard-nosed Jeff Kent finally hung his cleats, glove and porn-style mustache last week, putting an end to a solid 17-year career as one of the best-hitting second basemen of all-time. Kent got unusually emotional and tearful at a press conference last Thursday to announce his retirement from baseball as the all-time home run leader in Major League history for second basemen. Kent won the NL MVP in 2000 while with the Giants, appeared in five All-Star games, won the Silver Slugger award four times, and drove in 100 RBI eight times, including six straight years, a record for a second baseman. Kent is a sure bet to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer five years from now when he will be first eligible.

Three Boys in Blue eligible for arbitration avoided such and inked one-year deals. Martin, Jonathan Broxton and Jason Repko all signed new deals last week. A couple of quick highlights on the deals. Broxton's contract includes a Matt Stairs Fathead as a reminder to never throw him a fastball on a 3-1 count late in a game in the NLCS. And Repko's includes a coupon for Centinela Hospital in Inglewood, and a get-well card signed by all of the Dodgers, for when he gets hurt again either in Spring Training or the first month of the season. He then proceded to request a trade... again. Meanwhile, Andre Ethier, also eligible for arbitration, and the Dodgers continue to negotiate a deal and hope to avoid the arbitration process. The sticking point on his deal getting done is he wants the Blue to sign Manny so he can have a couple of career years before returning to being just slightly above average. The Dodgers are apparently in no such hurry.

Guillermo Mota is officially a Dodger again. A parade will be held in his honor in East L.A. somewhere in the middle of April.

Still no word on which of the three of Randy Wolf, Jon Garland and Braden Looper the front office is leaning towards, but all signs point to Wolf earning the dubious honors of being the guy no one seems to be excited over to fill out the back end of the rotation. I guess the Colletti & Co. feel any one of them can do what CC Sabathia is capable of doing.

We now return to our regularly scheduled blogging: Manny Watch.

And that concludes our blog programming for today...

Dodgers Set to Release Andruw

After several failed trade talks this week with other teams, the Dodgers are set to release disgruntled outfielder Andruw Jones tomorrow morning. Earlier in the month, the Dodgers deferred much of what was left on his contract for this season, saving them roughly $12MM in payroll for 2009. The Dodgers had attempted at one point to void his contract but feared Jones would get the backing of the union, and the contract would not be voided. As part of the agreement between the Dodgers and Jones, the Dodgers agreed not to make any further attempts to void his contract. Jones will become a free agent and will be free to talk to all teams tomorrow. He has said he would be interested in returning to Atlanta.

Hump Day News

In the last week, three free agent Dodger pitchers signed with new teams, which begs the question, "Is Ned awake during normal business hours?"

Derek Lowe will now make his home in Atlanta the next four years, and while he is no John Smoltz, he should be able to help keep Bobby Cox's hip in constant motion as he rocks in nervousness on the bench watching Lowe pitch to the rest of NL East. Brad Penny and Takashi Saito have taken their broken body parts to Beantown in hopes that, with Smoltz, they can equal one healthy pitcher.

An old reunion is nearly complete in Blue Town. Guillermo Mota is close to returning to L.A., and he'll be happy to know that Mike Piazza is not. More importantly, he'll be happy to know Piazza is sitting at home wondering how he was unable to catch up to the back-pedaling sprinter several spring trainings ago after Mota brushed his hair with a little chin music. Mota was Eric Gagne's main set-up guy before he was included in the infamous trade with Paulie LoDuca for Brad Penny in mid-2004. Mota hasn't been the same since, and chances are, he'll still be the same as he has been.

All is still quiet on the Manny front, which means Manny is still playing his video games, and still without any distractions. For what it's worth, Manny's hitting .730 with 63 home runs and 172 RBI playing himself as a Dodger on his PS3.

Rumors have surfaced as of today that Colletti & Co. are showing an increased interest in free agent pitcher Kris Benson. This could be great news for the rest of the players, and Joe Torre. Benson's wife Anna, the renowned baseball cocotte, has promised to expose her heavenly mountains in the dugout to keep the players "up" and awake during games. Meanwhile, as most of the top-tier free agent pitchers are falling of the books, Colletti and gang continue to pursue mediocrity among the likes of Randy Wolf, Jon Garland and Braden Looper. Of this bunch, I like Looper, the sole reason being he has a cool name.

And finally, the voice of the Dodgers for the last 60 years, Vin Scully was recently named Top Sportscaster of All-Time by the American Sportscasters Association. Being a native of Los Angeles myself, it's hard to argue with this decision despite the fact Angelinos like myself been bleesed with the voices of legends such as Chick Hearn and Bob Miller over the years. Congratulations Vin!

Musings for a Shiny Thursday

Trevor Hoffman has decided to take his "Hells Bells" theme song and 554 career saves to Beer Land, agreeing to a one year deal with the Brew Crew today. I guess he's really a big fan of sausage after all. Laverne and Shirley will be proud.

The Blue inked Yhency Brazoban and 14 others today to minor league contracts, most of whom I've never heard of (which would have been perfect for the team when they took the names off the back of the uniforms for two years), and invited them to spring training. So, for six weeks, these guys get to play in meaningless games with and against other guys whom most people have never heard of. Then, they can return to their day jobs as grocery baggers and parking lot attendents.

Speaking of which, the head honcho of parking lots and the woman who spends his money were named as L.A's power couple by the Los Angeles Business Journal Tuesday because of the team's success in light of their first trip to the NLCS since Ronald Reagan was still in office, and for their work in the community. Frankly (no pun intended), the only person in L.A. who got excited over this was the local Four Letter Network radio guy, Steve Mason, who is still oogling over Hot Legs Jamie to dump the head honcho for him.

A True Ace?

In the past couple of days, I've listened to and read some pretty intense (and asinine) arguments over what truly constitutes an "ace" in baseball. The dictionary definition of an ace as it applies here is someone who excels in an activity, or to put it mildy in baseball terms, a pitcher who consistently excels and dominates his position.

To me, there are only a handful of aces in baseball, and the list, in my opinion is a very exclusive one: Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, John Lackey, Roy Halladay, and CC Sabathia. At least two guys are on their way up to becoming aces: Tim Lincecum and James Shields. And yet a few more could be aces if they could either cut back on their walks, or stay healthy: Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett. And still to be determined: Chad Billingsley.

There are other names that could be mentioned as pitchers who excel at their position, but are they really even aces? To me, an ace is someone who doesnt give up a lot of runs (keeps his ERA way down - 3.25 is pushing it), doesn't allow many base runners (low WHIP - below 1.10), has the ability to dominate a game with strikeouts on any given night, and consistently pitches at least 180-200 innings every year. There aren't very many guys who can do that consistently, but each of the pitchers mentioned above qualify as either an ace or close to it.

A lot of people use the argument that an ace has to win a lot of games. While that may be true, wins are a more team dependent stat that is also credited to a pitcher as an individual stat. A lot has to happen for a pitcher to get a win. You could have one of the most dominant pitchers in the game who gives up 2 runs a night, and on most nights, that pitcher is bound to get a win. But there are some occasions where the pitcher doesn't have a very good offensive team to give him any run support, or his team's bullpen isn't very reliable which could result in fewer wins for the pitcher. While none of the above pitchers have really fallen into that category in recent years, it has happened (Santana this past season with the Mets comes to mind). Thus to me, wins are more of a team stat than an individual stat.

The other argument, and this one could become a whole separate argument in itself for any player, is the rings factor. Earlier today, I read someone say that Johan Santana wasn't an ace because he had never won any World Series rings. Well, if you used that argument, only two of the pitchers I mentioned above would then be considered aces, even though they consistently dominate their position.

Johan Santana has won two Cy Young Awards, and in his last four or five years in Minnesota through 2007, his aggregate second half stats were out of this world. In fact, if you take out the second half of his 2007 season in Minnesota, the second half numbers he amassed between 2004 and 2006 define what an ace really is. In those three years in the second half, Santana posted a combined 32-3 record with an ERA of 1.96 and a WHIP of 0.87 while striking out 331 hitters. That's what an ace does. And don't let those numbers discount what he's done overall. In his career, and mind you his first two seasons in 2000 and 2001 he was mainly a reliever, Santana is 209-109, with an ERA of 3.11 and a 1.10 WHIP. He has averaged nearly 239 strikeouts as a starter in the last five years alone. And yet, with all of this that he has accomplished, he has never won a World Series ring, let alone been in one, and yet some mongoloid had the balls to say he wasn't an ace.

Part of this "ace" argument also led to another argument for starting pitchers. The argument was generally focused on Mike Pelfrey and John Maine of the Mets, but prompted other names to come up such as Derek Lowe, Phil Hughes, Chin Ming Wang, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, and even Joba Chamberlain, just to name a few. (You can tell already who was involved in this part of the argument.) This side argument was, "Where in a rotation would these pitchers qualify?" By that I mean, are any of these guys an ace, a number two guy in a rotation, a three, four, or five?

Mike Pelfrey is a fine young pitcher. In his first full season in the Mets rotation this past season, Pelfrey went a respectable 13-11 with a 3.72 ERA with a fairly high WHIP of 1.36 while striking out just 110 hitters in just a hair over 200 innings. Not ace numbers to me. But the jury is still out on him. He'll be 25 next week, and is expected to be a major part of the Mets rotation for 2009. But if he doesn't improve on those numbers by getting the ERA and WHIP down, and then keeping them down, he should never be considered as an ace, for the Mets, or anyone else. He shouldn't even be considered as the number two guy in any rotation either. The same goes for John Maine, who's three years older, with worse numbers.

The jury is still out on Hughes, Lester and Chamberlain, as well. Hughes has had two stints in the Majors, but an injury-plagued 2008 kept him out most of the season. But there is a lot of potential and upside here. Jon Lester had a fantastic first full season in Boston's rotation. If he can cut down on the walks a little and continue to do everything else he's been doing, he should be considered an ace in no time. And Joba Chamberlain has shown signs of greatness in his short time in the Majors, as well. The question with him is, are the Yankees going to keep in the pen and keep limiting how often he pitches, or they going to put out in the rotation full time? If he gets into the rotation full time and dominates like he has in relief, he'll be an ace in no time, as well.

There's no need to go into detail on all the names above, but I think my point is made. There are a lot of pitchers who excel at their position, and perhaps in time they could become aces, but to be labeled an ace is a very exclusive group and pitchers have to earn that right.

Some Blue Anecdotes For The Day

Trevor Hoffman in Dodger Blue? It could happen, as early as today. AC/DC's "Hells Bells" could be ringing through Dodger Stadium next year as the Dodgers have offered the all-time saves leader a one-year deal worth somewhere over $4MM with an option for 2010. Could be a nice steal from the little Hated Ones to the south. The race for Glenn's brother, a former Dodger in his own right, is down to the Dodgers and the Brew Crew, and who wants to close for a team where a mid-game sausage race is the best entertainment on the field?

I'm not so sure Hoffman is a necessity, but the lack of progress with the two headed-monster (Scott Boras and Manny Ramirez) has prompted the Blue to shift their attention on other needs, which I thought might be looking for another $46MM mansion for the McCourts.

The starting pitching still needs to be addressed, and my guess is the signing of the great Claudio Vargas might just give them some hope that the even greater Victor Zambrano could follow suit. Even better is the notion that Ned Beatty is showing more and more interest in the great gascan, Jon Garland. Perhaps a Fernando return?

Speaking of Fernando-mania making a return to Chavez Ravine, Dennys Reyes, who once won the Fernando look-a-like contest in his first stint with the Dodgers in the early 90s, could be making an encore this year in La-La Land. And scaredy cat Guillermo Mota, who once ran so fast from the mound to the clubhouse in spring training after he took Mike Piazza's manhood away from him, is garnering some interest from the Dodgers, as well. So, what is this, a reunion year in L.A.?

In any case, I will miss Angel Berroa's on-field magic tricks next year, with his ol' hide-a-groundball-in-the-jersey trick. Berroa has since signed a minor league deal with the Yankees, which means Derek Jeter better be able to come with some card tricks of his own or his job could be in jeopardy.

Also gone from the Blue, and probably thrilled, is Scott Proctor, who finally escapes Joe Torre. Proctor can probably take Dr. Frank Jobe off his cell phone's speed dial now.

Good news! The Hated Ones to the north can't afford Manny! We can scratch another team off Boras's "Try to Get This Team Involved to Drive This Player's Price Up" list.



More to come...

More on Raffy, New Twist with Andruw, and Manny

Two weeks ago, the Dodgers re-signed shortstop Rafael Furcal, but not before all hell broke loose with him, his agent, and the Atlanta Braves. Now, I'm not one who knows how these free agency negotiations really work with the agents and teams, but there was certainly something fishy going on there in the end, and it's taken me until now to get all my thoughts together on the situation.

Back on Monday, December 15th, we learned Furcal had narrowed his choices down to two teams: the Dodgers, and the Braves. The Braves really came out of nowhere at the last minute in the rumor mill for Raffy's services, and there was growing expectation throughout that day that Furcal was leaning towards returning to Atlanta because they were willing to give him three guaranteed years, something Dodgers were hesitant to do. At some point that night, negotiations had gone so far with the Braves, that someone in the Braves organization told the Atlanta Journal Consitution (AJC) that the Braves and Furcal were close to a deal. What lead to this might have been Furcal's agent, Paul Kinzer, asking the Braves for a "signed term sheet," something that is considered widely in baseball as a final agreement, or a "gentleman's agreement."

The AJC ran with the story and before long, national media outlets had picked up the story and began to report that the two sides had reached an agreement. The following morning, despite all the reports saying the Braves and Furcal had an agreement, the Braves complied with Kinzer's request, and faxed him the signed term sheet. The Braves assumed they had a deal with Furcal. However, Kinzer took the term sheet to the Dodgers, and gave them one last chance to match it, and if they did, Furcal would stay with them. A day later, they guaranteed him the third years, and Furcal accepted their offer, and re-signed there two days later after passing his physical.

In the meantime, the Braves became enraged over the negotiating tactics put forth by Kinzer, saying he and Furcal reneged on an agreement. The Braves even went as far as saying they would never do business ever again with Kinzer, or the agency he worked for, which is run by fellow agent Arn Tellem. But, both Kinzer and Furcal still deny having ever agreed to any deal with the Braves.

Now, if I were in the Braves shoes, I would be enraged over this, as well. However, according to a statement by Kinzer, the baseball rules which "all agents and teams operate under are clear that no deal exists between a player and a team unless and until: (i) there is a signed and executed player agreement, or (ii) the Player's Union and Commissioner's office have otherwise confirmed the deal." Neither happened here. The Braves were also told that Monday night that Kinzer had advised his client "to sleep on it" before making a decision.

It seems to me the Braves let their emotions get the best of them, but everything indicates that Kinzer did nothing wrong, and complied within Major Leage Baseballs rules and guidelines throughout the process. I also believe that Furcal wasn't keen on signing with the Braves until he knew whether or not the Dodgers would match the offer for the simple fact he didn't want to play second base, something Braves were asking him to do as part of their deal. It also seems to me the Furcal wanted to stay in L.A. all along, which probably explained why he rejected Oakland's four-year offer earlier in the off-season.

If there is anyone to blame for this, it's really the media, and the people who still believe everything they read or hear from it. I can't begin to count how many times I've seen or heard a report saying Player A has been traded by Team A to Team B, only hours later for the GMs of both teams to dispute the report, after other media outlets picked up on the story. (A perfect example was the report several winters ago that the A's had traded star pitcher Tim Hudson to the Dodgers.) Three weeks ago, Giants GM Brian Sabean blasted the local media in the Bay Area who cover the Giants for continuously reporting erroneous stories that the Giants were in the thick of the C.C. Sabathia derby, were preparing to make an offer to him, and for even suggesting that Sabean and Sabathia had a planned meeting a few days later, when there was no truth to any of it. And the fallout to it all was Sabean then had to explain this through the media to the fans that there was never any truth to any of it.

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Andruw Jones was supposed to be that "big bat" in the middle of the Dodgers lineup when they inked him to a two-year $36MM deal last winter. Now, he's the "little bat" that neither the Dodgers, or anyone else seems to want. So, in an effort to find a suitor for him, and at the request of Jones and his agent Scott Boras, the Dodgers kindly obliged and restructured the final year of his contract, deferring most of what he's still owed into future years. Andruw Jones will still get his entire salary for 2009, but he will now be owed just $5MM in 2009, and the rest will be paid out over the following five years. In return, the Dodgers have also promised that they will release him, most likely by the end of the month, if they can't find a trade partner for him. What's guaranteed is this: Andruw Jones has played his last game as a Dodger, and I couldn't be more happy! What this also means is the Dodgers save an additional $12MM in payroll for 2009, which could very well be used to help entice Manny Ramirez to return to L.A.

I was all in favor of the signing last winter, primarily because I thought he would at least provide some power in the middle of the lineup that was sorely needed, and because it was only for two years. What I didn't expect was for him to arrive in spring training grossly overweight and out of shape, run into health problems, and hit just .158 with three home runs, 14 RBI in just 75 games. Now, I'm thrilled he's all but gone, and for all I care, he can take that frozen grin on his face and put it where the moon don't shine!

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The latest on Manny is, there's really nothing new going on. Well, maybe there is. The Dodgers and Manny's agent, Scott Boras, have reopened conversations regarding Manny. Whether they've begun to negotiate a contract remains unknown. What we also know is there is some level of interest from the Dodgers chief rival, the Giants. Reports that the Giants had made a four-year offer to Manny were immediately shot down, and whether the report was planted by Boras or not remains unknown. But it became pretty obvious last week that Boras may have hit the panic button when several reports came out that the Dodgers were beginning to look at other options (i.e. Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu).

Negotiations, or shall I say, communications, between the Dodgers and Boras had grown to a point that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti was becoming more and more frustrated with the lack of response from Boras on Manny's behalf. Colletti made it be known that Manny was still "the first choice" for the Dodgers, but they had to start looking at other avenues if Boras was going to continue to play his game, whatever it is the game is called.

Some suggest the Giants interest is genuine, and that teams like the Angels and Mets should not be written off as possible destiniations for Manny, even though both have already publically said they had no interest in Manny. However, in the end, I, like the same people in the baseball industry who believe there will be a market for Manny, still believe Manny will be back in Dodger Blue for the simple fact that, one, he's a perfect fit for the Dodgers and they need him in the middle of their lineup as much as anyone else does, and two, Manny would continue to be the superstar for the Dodgers in L.A., and he would welcome the attention he would garner as that superstar from the fans, the city, the organization and the media.