Fearless Predictions

Originally posted on my MySpace blog, November 30, 2005:

ESPN's Steve Phillips recently listed his Top 50 baseball Free Agents and predicted where they'd go in the off-season. I went ahead and listem below along with my own picks. So far, of the six free agents from this list who have signed, we've each only got one right: Japanese import catcher, Kenji Jojima.

Rank	Player	Pos	05 Team	ESPN	My Pick
1	Paul Konerko	1B	White Sox	Red Sox	Angels
2	Johnny Damon	OF	Red Sox	Red Sox	Red Sox
3	Roger Clemens	SP	Astros	Retire	Astros
4	Rafael Furcal	SS	Braves	Cubs	Cubs
5	Billy Wagner	RP	Phillies	Phillies	Phillies
6	BJ Ryan	RP	Orioles	Mets	Mets
7	AJ Burnett	SP	Marlins	Blue Jays	Blue Jays
8	Brian Giles	OF	Padres	Cubs	Dodgers
9	Trevor Hoffman	RP	Padres	Padres	Orioles
10	Kyle Farnsworth	RP	Braves	Braves	Yankees
11	Kevin Millwood	SP	Indians	Indians	Indians
12	Ramon Hernandez	C	Padres	Mets	Mets
13	Bengie Molina	C	Angels	Padres	Padres
14	Matt Morris	SP	Cardinals	Orioles	Dodgers
15	Jarrod Washburn	SP	Angels	Rangers	Rangers
16	Bob Wickman	RP	Indians	Indians	Indians
17	Todd Jones	RP	Marlins	Marlins	Marlins
18	Tom Gordon	RP	Yankees	Diamondbacks	Mets
19	Jeff Weaver	SP	Dodgers	Angels	Angels
20	Mark Grudzielanek	2B	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals
21	Alex Gonzalez	SS	Marlins	Braves	Braves
22	Nomar Garciaparra	SS	Cubs	Dodgers	Dodgers
23	Preston Wilson	OF	Nationals	Orioles	Orioles
24	Mike Piazza	C	Mets	Angels	Angels
25	Kenji Jojima	C	Japan	Mariners	Mariners
26	Frank Thomas	DH	White Sox	Indians	Rangers
27	Jacque Jones	OF	Twins	Tigers	Cardinals
28	Reggie Sanders	OF	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals
29	Kenny Rogers	SP	Rangers	Dodgers	Padres
30	Jeromy Burnitz	OF	Cubs	Padres	Cubs
31	Ricardo Rincon	RP	Athletics	Yankees	Yankees
32	Julian Taveres	RP	Cardinals	Mets	Cardinals
33	Bobby Howry	RP	Indians	Yankees	Indians
34	Carl Everett	OF	White Sox	Nationals	Nationals
35	Bill Mueller	3B	Red Sox	Dodgers	Dodgers
36	Kenny Lofton	OF	Phillies	Padres	Pirates
37	Brad Ausmus	C	Astros	Astros	Astros
38	John Olerud	1B	Red Sox	Mets	Red Sox
39	Ray Durham	2B	Giants	Mariners	Mariners
40	Joe Randa	3B	Padres	Dodgers	Reds
41	Scott Elarton	SP	Indians	Nationals	Nationals
42	Esteban Loaiza	SP	Nationals	Nationals	Dodgers
43	Jamie Moyer	SP	Mariners	Mariners	Mariners
44	Octavio Dotel	RP	Athletics	Mets	Mets
45	Juan Encarnacion	OF	Marlins	Nationals	Nationals
46	Bernie Williams	OF	Yankees	Orioles	Orioles
47	Sammy Sosa	OF	Orioles	Devil Rays	Tigers
48	Kevin Millar	1B	Red Sox	Twins	Twins
49	Paul Byrd	SP	Angels	Reds	Rangers
50	Scott Eyre	RP	Giants	Red Sox	Giants

Dodgers Hire New GM

Originally posted on my MySpace blog, November 18, 2007,

It took a while, but the Dodgers finally have a new GM. On Wednesday, they announced the hiring of longtime Giants assistant GM, Ned Colletti. I wasn't too thrilled with the decision at first, but after hearing his comments at the news conference, and listening to him in several interviews on local radio talk shows throughout the day, and reading what others in the industry said about the hiring, I've come to the conclusion that Colletti might just be the right guy for the job.

Colletti has a reputation for being a hard nosed guy when it comes to negotiations for contracts and trades. He engineered the Giants signing of Barry Bonds. He was a key player in the Giants' acquisition of Jeff Kent from Cleveland. He's also the second person the Dodgers have hired as a GM who was once a member of the media. (In 1988, the Dodgers hired Fred Claire. Claire was already in the Dodger organization, but he was once a media reporter.)

Colletti values more than just stats when it comes to building a team. I for one still believe that stats speak for themselves. Stats are cold, hard facts. Many still buy into the notion that previous GM, Paul DePodesta, was too much of a stat freak, who didn't put too much value into other areas, such as a player's personality, the scouting reports, etc. They're right, he didn't put too much value into it, but more importantly, he didnt overvalue it either. He didn't rely strictly on stats as many were led to believe. But one thing he wasn't very good at, which ultimately led to his firing, was communicating with the players, his collegues, and more importantly, his superiors.

Owner Frank McCourt says he and Colletti hit it off right away. But then again, I believe he said the same thing about DePodesta when he was hired two years ago as well. As soon as Colletti knew he had the job, he and McCourt spent close to 24 hours together over a span of three days, asking questions, answering questions, determining what direction the team was headed. Colletti basically has a very good idea what he wants to do, and it seems as if McCourt is on bourd with his ideas.

Colletti's first order of business will be to find a new manager for the recently "fired" Jim Tracy. We know right now that one of DePodesta's finalists for the managerial post, in fact he was the leading candidate at the time of DePodesta's firing, Terry Collins, will be interviewed again for the job. Also in line are Jim Fregosi and Lou Piniella, although Piniella is a very longshot. There are other unknowns on Colletti's list of candidates so one can only wonder.

Once a manager is in place, Colletti will get to work on free agents and potential trades. He's indicated that he will sit down with Kim Ng and Roy Smith, who running the player personnel ship in between GMs, and find out who they've contacted as far as free agents and other teams for trade matches, and then he'd move forward with some of those and some of his own ideas. The most glaring areas of need are at third base, the outfield, and starting pitching, but Colletti has suggested first base needs an upgrade, as well. That said, its pretty obvious Hee Seop Choi and Milton Bradley's days are numbered in Dodger blue.

There's speculation Colletti is talking with Milwaukee about Lyle Overbay. Not much of an upgrade over the Choi/Olmedo Saenz combo, but if he gets the right guy at third base (rumors persist they are talking to Nomar Garciaparra), then Overbay at first doesn't look so bad.

It's still rather early in the game but the Dodgers just might have saved themselves from a PR nightmare with the hiring of Colletti. Check back in two months to see what the new roster looks like and we'll have a better idea of whether Colletti was the right hire for the job.